2025 Triangle Market Overview and 2026 Forecast: WAREHOUSE

February 6th, 2026

Warehouse Trends and Outlook Ed Brown NAI Tri Properties

Each year, our industry experts evaluate and review the Raleigh, Durham, and greater Triangle commercial real estate market’s annual performance. We share activity and trends from the market data we analyzed and experienced in 2025 to activities we anticipate in 2026.

What are the key market drivers? How have the different real estate sectors performed?

In this segment, we interviewed Ed Brown, CCIM, SIOR, Executive Vice President to share his thoughts on warehouse trends.

What was unique about 2025? And were there any milestones for this property type?

Rental Rate growth largely plateaued in 2025, setting the stage for 2026 to be a year of deal-making rather than rate‑pushing, as landlords focus on concessions and structure to secure absorption.

For only the third time in the Triangle’s market history, the warehouse activity recorded over 1 million square feet of net absorption in the 3rd quarter.

Significant pre‑leased deliveries further supported absorption, with two major facilities totaling 778,000 SF delivered in RTP/I‑40 and Eastern Wake, occupied by Kuehne & Nagel and Johnson Brothers.
The construction pipeline expansion of 4.3 million SF in 2025, with 1.5 million SF set to deliver by year-end, represents one of the largest industrial development pipelines to date.
With modern product driving performance, the most year-to date absorption occurred in buildings constructed in the last decade, underscoring the market’s shift toward modern, high-spec warehouse supply.
Garner secured the Amazon Fulfilment Center with 2.6 million SF and was recognized as one of the region’s largest industrial assets, driving industrial ecosystem growth.

Knightdale is part of the Eastern Wake industrial surge, one of the fastest-growing industrial areas, with significant construction activity throughout 2025, resulting in strong absorption and low vacancies.
Eastern Wake delivered major pre‑leased industrial product in 2025, contributing significantly to regional absorption.
In Holly Springs a major Industrial/Life Science Manufacturing transaction was Fujifilm’s $1.2B industrial facility expansion, and Amgen’s $1.02B new facility, both contributing to industrial manufacturing space demand and supporting regional warehouse and logistics growth. Benson also contributed to the industrial lease milestones bringing the region’s largest U.S. manufacturing lease of 2025 occurred in Benson, when Vulcan Elements signed a 501,215 SF lease at Cross Point Logistics Center.

This transaction is widely recognized as one of the year’s most significant industrial milestones, both within the Triangle and at the national level.

Who were the big “winners” in this property type?

New Class A industrial properties delivered the strongest absorption and captured the bulk of tenant demand.

Q4 2025 saw 1.5 million SF of new Class A warehouse space delivered, with continued rent growth and strong leasing performance.

Sellers achieving sub 5% cap rates and investors wanting a position in our local economy.

Do you see any new emerging trends? Where do you see growth occurring?

We expect to see growth in Johnston County at I-40 and Highway 42 with new products hitting the market and, development starting in early 2026.

What do you anticipate for 2026?

I anticipate that businesses in general will move forward cautiously, while rental rates will capture opportunity. Tenant demand will shift towards larger square footage footprints within the Triangle. Even with new inventory hitting the market, as leasing hasn’t slowed, we expect vacancy to remain stable.

Where do you see opportunities in your property type for Raleigh, Durham, and the greater Triangle?

Those who can offer the most competitive rental rates will capture the opportunities.

In our market, what challenges are there in this property type?

What factors are you seeing drive CRE decisions in this property type?

In southern Wake County, along I‑540 interchange is quickly becoming a key driver.

What do you love about working with this property type?

Industrial has been an active segment of the market and we have been fortunate to participate.

 

As you look ahead, planning your CRE goals for 2026, let our real estate advisors help guide you with insider market knowledge and experience.

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