Land Trends and Outlook

Each year, our industry experts evaluate and review the Raleigh, Durham, and greater Triangle commercial real estate market’s annual performance. We share activity and trends from the market data we analyzed and experienced in 2025 to activities we anticipate in 2026.

What are the key market drivers? How have the different real estate sectors performed?

In this segment, we interviewed Rob Griffin, Director of Land Sales, to share his thoughts on land trends.

To learn more about other property types click on office, flex, investment sales, retail, and warehouse.

What was unique about 2025? And were there any milestones for this property type?

2025 was a case study in multiple personalities. Interest in land in the Triangle market remained high throughout the year, with existing developers on the hunt and out-of-state firms continuing to enter the market. On the flip side, sites started to sit longer, receive fewer offers than owners had become accustomed to over the last 3-4 years, and numerous deals were renegotiated, and in some cases, terminated.

Who were the big “winners” in this property type?

Getting a land deal across the finish line in 2025 made everyone involved a winner. Between incredibly slow and arduous entitlement processes, sluggish capital markets, never-ending utility challenges, and pricing increases, surviving to closing equaled winning.

Do you see any new emerging trends? Where do you see growth occurring?

Build-to-rent will remain a trend to watch. The pushback against multifamily in smaller outlying suburbs, I believe, will lead to more single-family neighborhoods in urban and suburban areas where multifamily would have gone in years past (if the yield and home sales pricing can support the land and development costs). While I-540 has made commutes more palatable for outlying communities, the availability of utilities will be one of the major drivers of growth, and where it occurs.

What do you anticipate for 2026?

Unfortunately, the market has not yet moved past the triage phase required to keep transactions viable. Due to the capital markets’ need to see deals as “shovel-ready” and the 2-3 years needed to get through the entitlement process to make them shovel-ready, we’re seeing the last of the land deals that went under contract before the financial markets soured in September of 2022 enter the final approach to closing. These deals went under contract at record-high land prices, took far longer to entitle than anticipated, have not seen the hoped-for improvement in pricing and interest rates, and have seen rent growth and home pricing stagnate throughout the contract term. We anticipate that 2026 will see concessions to close and/or some deals coming back to market.

Where do you see opportunities in your property type for Raleigh, Durham, and the greater Triangle?

I see opportunities for infill assemblage and redevelopment, although it is a tougher lift than single-parcel greenfield development. It involves finding sites where utilities already exist and zoning is potentially in place for the desired product type.

In our market, what challenges are there in this property type?

The challenges for 2026 largely remain the same challenges we discussed for 2025. Utilities continue to be a game of whack-a-mole with moratoriums in areas that should be prime growth nodes. Several cities and counties are still working through UDO updates that were delayed with the passing of SB382. Several landowners have elected to simply sit on the sidelines and wait to see what impact these updates will have, rather than market their properties.

What factors are you seeing drive CRE decisions in this property type?

Reputation of towns and ease (or difficulty) of working with them, access to utilities and clearest path to closing.

What do you love about working with this property type?

Variety is the spice of life, right? No two deals are ever the same, but they build upon one another. Whatever happened yesterday, good or bad, offers experience that can help guide tomorrow’s deals and clients in a positive way.

As you look ahead, planning your CRE goals for 2025, let our real estate advisors help guide you with insider market knowledge and experience.

Contact info for all our professionals can be found at
https://www.triprop.com/about/team/

Access our full market reports here
https://www.triprop.com/category/market-reports/

2025 Triangle Market Overview and 2026 Forecast: LAND