2025 Triangle Market Overview and 2026 Forecast: INVESTMENT SALES

February 5th, 2026

Investment Sales Trends and Outlook

Each year, our industry experts evaluate and review the Raleigh, Durham, and greater Triangle commercial real estate market’s annual performance. We share activity and trends from the market data we analyzed and experienced in 2025 to activities we anticipate in 2026.

In this segment, we interviewed Greg Sanchez, SIOR, CEO and Matt Glenn, Vice President to share their thoughts on investment sale trends.
To learn more about other property types click on office, land, retail, flex, or warehouse.

What are the key market drivers? How have the different real estate sectors performed?

In 2025, the Triangle’s office investment market experienced one of its clearest
periods of price discovery in more than a decade. A wide gap emerged

between distressed assets trading at steep discounts and stabilized Class A
buildings that continued to attract selective capital at valuations meaningfully
below pre 2022 levels. Rising vacancy and capex needs kept downward
pressure on pricing, yet improving absorption in certain amenitized districts
and a decline in sublease availability showed the first signs of underlying
stabilization. The development pipeline remained frozen, and this lack of new
supply set the stage for a structurally tighter leasing environment over the
longer term.

The industrial investment market remained one of the region’s most active segments, supported by strong year end absorption and major manufacturing and logistics commitments. Several very large leases anchored 2025 performance and boosted buyer conviction in long term demand. At the same time, new deliveries pushed vacancy upward only modestly, underscoring the depth of the Triangle’s industrial tenant base. Investors continued to pay premiums for modern Class A assets, particularly in submarkets where infrastructure and tenant growth aligned.

For office, one milestone was the return of meaningful positive absorption in key submarkets after several soft years, driven by large move ins in North Hills, Iron Works, Imperial Center and HUB RTP. This contributed to more confident underwriting for office assets located in walkable, amenity dense areas. Another milestone was the increased frequency of lender influenced sales, marking a shift toward more transparent pricing for distressed and transitional assets.

For industrial, 2025 produced some of the largest industrial leases in the country, reinforcing the credibility of the Triangle as an advanced manufacturing and logistics hub. These transactions helped propel industrial investment pricing to some of the highest levels in regional history, with several Class A sales clearing above $200 per square foot. The year also marked one of the largest development pipelines on record, with more than 3 million square feet of industrial product under construction entering 2026.

What was unique about 2025? And were there any milestones for this property type?

In 2025, the Triangle’s office investment market experienced one of its clearest periods of price discovery in more than a decade. A wide gap emerged between distressed assets trading at steep discounts and stabilized Class A buildings that continued to attract selective capital at valuations meaningfully below pre 2022 levels. Rising vacancy and capex needs kept downward pressure on pricing, yet improving absorption in certain amenitized districts and a decline in sublease availability showed the first signs of underlying stabilization. The development pipeline remained frozen, and this lack of new supply set the stage for a structurally tighter leasing environment over the longer term.

Who were the big “winners” in this property type?

In office, the winners in 2025 were the buyers—particularly private and entrepreneurial groups—who stepped in to acquire well located assets at reset pricing levels. These buyers benefited from a rare combination of discounted valuations, limited competitive bidding, and the knowledge that new office supply had effectively stopped, meaning that well positioned assets would face less competition as the leasing market gradually recovers. Redevelopment and owner user buyers also captured strong opportunities in distressed Class B and C properties that traded below replacement cost.

In industrial, the winners were developers who entered emerging submarkets several years ago, especially in Southern Wake, Eastern Wake, and Johnston County. What were once considered pioneering locations benefited disproportionately in 2025 as leasing velocity validated those early development decisions. These assets often leased ahead of expectations, establishing higher rent floors and delivering strong exit pricing on stabilized sales. Investors also increasingly gravitated toward small bay and subdividable industrial product, as tenant demand shifted toward flexible footprints and away from exclusively large format requirements, even though some big box demand remained.

Do you see any new emerging trends? Where do you see growth occurring?

n the office capital markets, one of the most important trends is the growing pipeline of lender driven sales as loan maturities approach. These dispositions are expanding the opportunity set for buyers and are expected to increase over the next few years. Another emerging trend is the exploration of conversion and adaptive reuse strategies. Investors are also increasingly concentrating on suburban, functionally efficient office buildings that appeal to owner users, smaller tenants and are well amenitized.

In industrial, one of the fastest developing trends is the heightened importance of power availability, because advanced manufacturing and life science adjacent users have more intensive electrical demands. Outer ring submarkets continue to gain traction as tenants and investors pursue land availability and lower occupancy costs. At the same time, capital has grown more enthusiastic about small bay and multi-tenant industrial, seeing it as a durable, diversified, and less volatile revenue stream compared to large single tenant big box assets.

Growth in office investment sales is most likely to occur around the amenitized mixed use districts that continue to outperform North Hills, Iron Works, Imperial Center and areas near HUB RTP. These locations benefit from strong tenant appeal as well as a lack of competing new supply. A second area of growth will be in the distressed and transitional office segment, where more assets are coming to market at price points that allow buyers to pursue repositioning strategies.

In industrial, growth will continue to cluster in Southern Wake, Eastern Wake, Johnston County, and along the I 40 corridors. These submarkets hold the bulk of the region’s development pipeline and have proven leasing momentum. They are also becoming the natural targets for investors seeking scale, modern product, and stronger year over year rent growth.

What do you anticipate for 2026?

For office, 2026 is expected to bring greater transactional activity, clearer pricing, and more availability of distressed and transitional assets as lenders shift from extend and pretend to actual resolution strategies. With virtually no new supply coming online, the market should gradually tighten, and this imbalance will improve the leasing prospects for well-located assets ultimately supporting valuations over the medium term.

For industrial, 2026 should maintain strong investor interest despite elevated deliveries. While vacancy may rise modestly due to new supply, demand for Class A and small bay industrial will remain strong, and rent growth is expected to continue at a healthy but more normalized pace. Investors may become increasingly selective but will remain engaged given the Triangle’s strong fundamentals.

In our market, what challenges are there in this property type?

The office market continues to grapple with high vacancy among older assets, large capex requirements, and limited financing availability for non-stabilized buildings. These challenges lengthen marketing timelines and keep pricing pressure on Class B / C space, though they also create entry points for buyers with repositioning strategies.

The industrial market faces challenges tied to utility and infrastructure capacity, particularly for power intensive users, as well as zoning constraints. New deliveries in certain submarkets may temporarily elevate vacancy rates, and rising land costs are constraining feasible development opportunities in core locations.

What factors are you seeing drive CRE decisions in this property type?

For office, investment decisions are being driven by basis relative to replacement cost, the durability of in place cash flow, the repositioning potential of a building, and the long-term benefit of acquiring assets in a market with very little new supply. Investors are scrutinizing rollover schedules, credit profiles, and the cost of bringing buildings up to modern tenant expectations.

For industrial, decisions are centered on property functionality, rent growth prospects, absorption velocity, and access to infrastructure and labor. Investors are focusing heavily on power availability, the adaptability of floorplates for smaller tenants, and proven leasing momentum within a given submarket.

What do you love about working with this property type?

Working in office investment sales is rewarding because each asset requires a customized strategy to unlock its potential—whether through recapitalization, redevelopment, adaptive reuse, or focused leasing efforts. The ability to create value during a period of market dislocation makes the work both analytical and entrepreneurial.

Industrial investment sales is exciting because the fundamentals are clear, the user base is expanding, and the Triangle continues to attract high quality manufacturing and distribution operators. The momentum in key submarkets and the ability to match capital with product that demonstrates consistent absorption make this an energizing and growth-oriented segment of the market.

As you look ahead, planning your CRE goals for 2024, let our real estate advisors help guide you with insider market knowledge and experience.

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