Retail Trends and Outlook

Each year, our industry experts evaluate and review the Raleigh, Durham, and greater Triangle commercial real estate market’s annual performance. We share activity and trends from the market data we analyzed and experienced in 2025 to activities we anticipate in 2026.

What are the key market drivers? How have the different real estate sectors performed?

In this segment, we interviewed Joaquin Canals, Senior Vice President to share his thoughts on retail trends. To learn more about other property types click on office, land, flex, investment sales, and warehouse.

What was unique about 2025? And were there any milestones for this property type?

2025 was defined by remarkably limited new retail construction, with almost all development concentrated in supermarket‑anchored projects like Publix, Harris Teeter and Food Lion as well as free‑standing big‑box users such as Costco, Home Depot, Lowe’s, Tractor Supply, Walmart, and Lidl. At the same time, the market saw meaningful expansion of retail within mixed‑use developments, particularly those tied to new apartment and condominium projects.
Another notable milestone was the strong momentum in restaurant activity, including new leases, relocations, and ground‑up development reflecting both continued population growth and evolving
consumer preferences.

Who were the big “winners” in this property type?

The strongest emerging trend is the continued migration of retail growth into suburban markets, driven by increasing residential densities and sustained in‑migration.
We expect continued absorption of mid‑size box spaces, though at a slower pace as available inventory decline. Mixed‑use environments combining residential, retail, and service‑oriented tenants will also remain a major growth area as developers cater to walkable, convenience‑driven consumer patterns.

Do you see any new emerging trends? Where do you see growth occurring?

No dramatic shifts are expected in 2026. Overall fundamentals should remain steady; however, mid‑tier malls and their anchor tenants (Triangle Town Center anchored by Belk, Dillards and Saks Fifth Avenue) may experience the most disruption, as aging centers continue to struggle with relevance, tenant turnover, and redevelopment pressure.

What do you anticipate for 2025?

I don’t expect any seismic changes, except for mid-tiered malls and their anchor tenants.

In our market, what challenges are there in this property type?

Difficult retail rezoning process. High small shop rental rates make it a challenge for small, local
retailers.

What factors are you seeing drive CRE decisions in this property type?

Decision‑making is heavily influenced by the lack of new construction, aside from supermarket‑
anchored developments. This constrained supply environment pushes tenants toward relocations,
dark‑box backfilling and mixed-use retail opportunities. As a result, retailers are increasingly focused on speed‑to‑market, second‑generation space availability, and co‑tenancy strength.

What do you love about working with this property type?

The dynamics between Landlords and Tenants and how retailers adapt to the ever-changing retail landscape.

As you look ahead, planning your CRE goals for 2026, let our real estate advisors help guide you with insider market knowledge and experience.

Contact info for all our professionals can be found at
https://www.triprop.com/about/team/

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https://www.triprop.com/category/market-reports/

2025 Triangle Market Overview and 2026 Forecast: RETAIL