2023 Triangle Market Overview and 2024 Forecast: WAREHOUSE

February 16th, 2024

Warehouse Trends and Outlook Ed Brown NAI Tri Properties

Each year, our industry experts evaluate and review the Raleigh, Durham, and greater Triangle commercial real estate market’s annual performance. We share activity and trends from the market data we analyzed and experienced in 2023 to activities we anticipate in 2024.

What are the key market drivers? How have the different real estate sectors performed?

In this segment, we interviewed Ed Brown, CCIM, SIOR, Executive Vice President to share his thoughts on warehouse trends.

To learn more about other property types click on office, land, flex, investment sales, and retail.

What was unique about 2023? And were there any milestones for this property type?

The huge increase in rental rates. Historically, the biggest increase in one year.

2023 will be known as the peak of the rental rates for warehouse space.

Who were the big “winners” in this property type?

The developers who could get financing and start construction in 2023 will be winners as less product will be delivered in 2024 due to the interest rate increase slowing down new development starts.

Do you see any new emerging trends? Where do you see growth occurring?

It is an overused term, but the barriers to entry (desired location and quality warehouse sites have been leased) are creating new warehouse submarkets further down the road. I see growth occurring in Garner, Clayton, Benson, Youngsville, Efland, Mebane, and North Durham.

What do you anticipate for 2024?

Vacancy will decrease, and higher interest rates will prevent some developers from starting new projects. Our population growth will drive demand for existing vacant warehouse space, which will lease up in 2024.

Where do you see opportunities in your property type for Raleigh, Durham, and the greater Triangle?

Garner, Clayton, Benson, Youngsville, Efland, Mebane, and North Durham.

In our market, what challenges are there in this property type?

Limited land that is affordable (and includes utilities) to develop warehouse space and higher interest rates decreasing the ability for the market to deliver more product.

What factors are you seeing drive CRE decisions in this property type?

Same as #1 above. In addition, there is always an increasing demand for warehouse space as the population grows for the simple reason of providing the goods the population consumes. Our population growth continues to increase every year.

What do you love about working with this property type?

You can arrive at showings with work boots on, and no one is offended!


As you look ahead, planning your CRE goals for 2024, let our real estate advisors help guide you with insider market knowledge and experience.

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